改變順序,悲劇變喜劇?!咕咕鐘的人生哲學

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 Post Excerpt  如果是跳舞-> 喝酒->被揍,就會像懲罰,這個鐘演的就是悲劇。 但打了又繼續喝,水車照轉、舞照跳,反而變成一種豁達,不管外在如何打擊,我就是要做喜歡的事。反而變成喜劇。 其實數據分析上, 也有類似的差別。 傳統的回歸分析預測結果,順序是不重要的, 某個因子和結果的關係是固定的。 變量輸入一個數字,答案就會出來一個固定的數字; 算一次和算一百次,都是一樣的答案,是設定好的命定。 但現在越來越盛行的貝氏分析結合蒙地卡羅馬可夫鏈(MCMC)方法,如常見的運動比賽預測或是颱風路徑預測,就不是這樣看世界: 是一種隨機過程,事件發生的順序是重要的。每一個事件,都受到其前一事件的影響; 且具有隨機性,再來一次結果可能會不一樣。 沒有走到最後一步,沒有一個絕對。
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